This week's mock pulled together 20 drafts from around the Internet to see if we can find a common ground. For some picks, it worked. For others, it was a complete disaster.
And now something completely. Since January I’ve been writing a mock draft every Monday. Believe it or not, it’s something of a grueling process. I don’t want to write the same thing every week, but I’m also not changing things around simply to change things around.
To give these weekly mock drafts some variety, sometimes they’re two rounds, have trades or I provide multiple options for teams. For one of them I even enlisted a former co-worker in the process. This week’s mock draft enlisted many more than just one different opinion.
The mock draft this weekend is of the consensus variety, for the most part. I pulled together 20 different recent mock drafts to see if there’s a noticeable lean on some picks. There was a great variance in mocks used. A handful are from draft "experts," some are from team beat writers and some are from reporters. I even included the choices from the SB Nation writers mock draft. Find links to all of the mocks used at the bottom of this post.
For this exercise, I had to impose some rules to give every team a unique pick. When there was a tie among top selections, I made the pick. On a couple of picks I exercised my right as a self-styled mock draft enthusiast to change a choice. This only happened a couple of times to make the rest of the mock draft smoother. And because the consensus choice was terrible. When the highest choice was already gone, I went with the next highest player available.
This is either the best way to do a mock draft or the worst way. You decide. Here’s the picks.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
This is the only pick where 20 out of 20 mock drafts had the same choice. Go figure. Does anyone else find that total consensus to be a little strange, though?
The pick:
100 percent Jameis Winston
2. Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
The lean for Tennessee has now become Mariota, but often it has a caveat. A few mock drafters think Mariota goes No. 2, but they don’t necessarily think it will be the Titans with the pick. Since I went with 20 mocks that have no trades, though, Mariota is the overwhelming choice for Tennessee.
The picks:
65 percent Marcus Mariota
35 percent Leonard Williams
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
This pick was the only one in the entire first round where three players received 25 percent or more of the picks. Fowler narrowly came out on top, giving Jacksonville their pass rushing Leo of the future. What was most interesting is that many of the newest mocks have Williams to Jacksonville.
The picks:
40 percent Dante Fowler
30 percent Vic Beasley
25 percent Leonard Williams
5 percent Amari Cooper
4. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DT, Southern California
This is the first pick that was a tie. With ties going to me, the choice is Williams because you shouldn’t pass on the top player in the draft at No. 4. That’s especially true considering the wide receiver depth in this year’s draft. We’ll see it get tested later in the first round, though.
The picks:
35 percent Leonard Williams
35 percent Amari Cooper
20 percent Kevin White
5 percent Dante Fowler
5 percent Vic Beasley
5. Washington: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
The choices for Washington consisted of seven different players. The most votes went for Fowler, who was the choice nine drafters. Beasley came in second being the selection in six mocks, so he’s the pick.
The picks:
45 percent Dante Fowler
30 percent Vic Beasley
5 percent Amari Cooper
5 percent Brandon Scherff
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Leonard Williams
5 percent Randy Gregory
6. New York Jets: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Here is where I exercise my magical veto power to override the pick. First, the popular choice of Mariota is off the board. Next up is Shane Ray of Missouri. To me, this is early for the pass rusher and a better choice is close behind in Cooper.
The picks:
30 percent Marcus Mariota
25 percent Shane Ray
20 percent Amari Cooper
10 percent Kevin White
5 percent Todd Gurley
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Randy Gregory
7. Chicago Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
The number of times White was picked for Chicago was somewhat surprising. It makes sense after the Bears traded Brandon Marshall. I’ve been hooked on defensive players for the Bears, so this might have me going back to sources and reconsider things for next week’s mock.
The picks:
45 percent Kevin White
15 percent Amari Cooper
15 percent Danny Shelton
10 percent Vic Beasley
5 percent Breshad Perriman
5 percent Dante Fowler
5 percent DeVante Parker
8. Atlanta Falcons: Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
Something tells me if this would have been tabulated a few weeks ago, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory would be the selection. But after news came out of Gregory’s positive drug test at the combine, I imagine this pick shifted onto Dupree.
The picks:
40 percent Alvin Dupree
25 percent Shane Ray
15 percent Randy Gregory
10 percent Vic Beasley
5 percent Brandon Scherff
5 percent Kevin White
9. New York Giants: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Half of the picks being on Scherff is no surprise. He’s been the popular choice for the Giants just about the entire draft season. The variety after him is what’s notable, especially considering that none of the choices were La’el Collins of LSU.
The picks:
50 percent Brandon Scherff
15 percent Andrus Peat
10 percent Danny Shelton
10 percent Trae Waynes
5 percent Amari Cooper
5 percent DeVante Parker
5 percent Randy Gregory
10. St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
This is another choice that came as a surprise. I thought for sure an offensive lineman would get a higher percentage. With four different lineman here, it looks like they split the selection. Straight away, Parker would be the top wide receiver on the Rams roster, assuming Nick Foles can get him the ball.
The picks:
35 percent DeVante Parker
15 percent Brandon Scherff
15 percent Amari Cooper
10 percent La’el Collins
10 percent Kevin White
5 percent Andrus Peat
5 percent Cameron Erving
5 percent Ereck Flowers
11. Minnesota Vikings: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
After the top two picks, no choice had a higher percentage than this one (and the one that follows). Also expectedly, the next-highest choice was a wide receiver. There is at least some level of curiosity or interest from Minnesota regarding Waynes. They brought him in for a private visit and the team has a need at the position.
The picks:
60 percent Trae Waynes
20 percent DeVante Parker
10 percent Brandon Scherff
5 percent Alvin Dupree
5 percent La’el Collins
12. Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
What struck me about this pick is not the selection of Shelton. I think a lot of people have been on that pick for some time. But beyond Shelton, all of the other choices were offensive players. Should it be that overwhelming, or should there be a pass rusher or another defensive tackle like Texas’ Malcom Brown this high?
The picks:
60 percent Danny Shelton
20 percent DeVante Parker
5 percent Breshad Perriman
5 percent Jaelen Strong
5 percent Kevin White
5 percent Marcus Mariota
13. New Orleans Saints: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
Since Gregory’s positive drug test came to light, this has often been the floor for him in the draft. As we’ll see later in this mock, that’s not totally the case. Among a number of selections made for the Saints, though, Gregory comes out on top.
The picks:
30 percent Randy Gregory
15 percent Alvin Dupree
10 percent Arik Armstead
10 percent Trae Waynes
10 percent Vic Beasley
5 percent Brandon Scherff
5 percent Dante Fowler
5 percent Kevin Johnson
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Shane Ray
14. Miami Dolphins: Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
To this point, the Dolphins have the most variety of selections with 13. The choice itself, Perriman, only carried 20 percent of the picks. Nine other choices had five percent of the votes. That should illustrate just how many different directions Miami could go in the draft. In other words, no one really has an idea what the Dolphins will do.
The picks:
20 percent Breshad Perriman
15 percent Todd Gurley
10 percent Brandon Scherff
10 percent DeVante Parker
5 percent D.J. Humphries
5 percent Dorial Green-Beckham
5 percent Eric Kendricks
5 percent Jalen Strong
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Landon Collins
5 percent Nelson Agholor
5 percent Trae Waynes
15. San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
As I’ve explained in previous mock drafts, Armstead makes sense as a natural 3-4 end who could come in as a high upside choice for the 49ers. It’s also no surprise that almost all of the choice for the 49ers are on the defensive side of the ball.
The picks:
40 percent Arik Armstead
15 percent Malcom Brown
10 percent Trae Waynes
5 percent Eddie Goldman
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent Kevin White
5 percent Marcus Peters
5 percent Randy Gregory
5 percent Shane Ray
5 percent Shaq Thompson
16. Houston Texans: Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri
There are some things to consider with this pick, the first being that Alvin Dupree is gone. There’s still a tie between Ray and running back Todd Gurley. The Gurley choice is a little strange to me. Arian Foster had a bounce back 2014 season and Alfred Blue looks like a decent backup. With that in mind, the choice goes to Ray, who would give Houston another pass rusher.
The picks:
20 percent Alvin Dupree
20 percent Todd Gurley
20 percent Shane Ray
5 percent DeVante Parker
5 percent Dorial Green-Beckham
5 percent Eric Kendricks
5 percent Jaelen Strong
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Shaq Thompson
5 percent Vic Beasley
17. San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Could it really be running back or bust for the Chargers in the first round? If so, would it actually be Gordon? There were reports a few weeks ago that the Chargers like Gordon, but those rumors seemed to have quieted some lately. He’s still the popular choice, but only marginally.
The picks:
30 percent Melvin Gordon
20 percent Todd Gurley
15 percent Ereck Flowers
10 percent La’el Collins
10 percent T.J. Clemmings
5 percent D.J. Humphries
5 percent Eric Rowe
5 percent Malcom Brown
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C/OT, Florida State
Here is another choice where we had a tie I had to break. Why Erving over wide receiver Jaelen Strong and offensive tackle La’el Collins? With Eric Kush currently slotted to be Kansas City’s starting center, that could be an early choice in the draft. Erving is the type of player who the Chiefs could draft and figure out if they want him at center or even offensive tackle.
The picks:
15 percent Cameron Erving
15 percent Jaelen Strong
15 percent La’el Collins
10 percent Andrus Peat
10 percent D.J. Humphries
10 percent Ereck Flowers
5 percent Breshad Perriman
5 percent Eric Kendricks
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent Kevin Johnson
5 percent Phillip Dorsett
19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo Bills): La’el Collins, OT, LSU
There are a lot of choices the Browns could go with at No. 19, and number of players in more than one mock draft shows it. Going with an offensive lineman is understandable. Starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is a free agent after this season and right guard John Greco has been inconsistent.
The picks:
20 percent La’el Collins
15 percent Ereck Flowers
10 percent Breshad Perriman
10 percent Danny Shelton
10 percent Malcom Brown
10 percent Shane Ray
5 percent Andrus Peat
5 percent D.J. Humphries
5 percent Eddie Goldman
5 percent T.J. Clemmings
5 percent Todd Gurley
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Landon Collins, S, LSU
A week from now, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a cornerback overtake Collins. As it is, the Alabama safety – the draft’s best safety by a wide margin – is the choice. With Nate Allen departing in free agency, there’s a need Collins could fill.
The picks:
35 percent Landon Collins
25 percent Byron Jones
10 percent Arik Armstead
10 percent Jake Fisher
5 percent Jaelen Strong
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent Marcus Peters
5 percent Randy Gregory
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
With Gregory gone earlier in this mock draft, the choice comes down to Peat or Miami’s Ereck Flowers. Either choice would be a good one for the Bengals. Flowers is more of a power blocker while Peak has more athletic potential and could be the team’s left tackle of the future.
The picks:
20 percent Randy Gregory
15 percent Andrus Peat
15 percent Ereck Flowers
10 percent D.J. Humphries
10 percent Landon Collins
10 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Alvin Dupree
5 percent Danny Shelton
5 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent Marcus Peters
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
If Pittsburgh’s need at cornerback wasn’t apparent before, it should be after these results. Eighty percent of the picks went to cornerback, with Johnson coming out on top. Johnson is an aggressive cornerback with good agility and speed.
The picks:
40 percent Kevin Johnson
30 percent Marcus Peters
15 percent Landon Collins
5 percent Arik Armstead
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent Trae Waynes
23. Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
The thought of having Brown next to free agent signing Haloti Ngata is dangerous. Ngata is an imposing physical presence and Browns is an active and aggressive force inside. The strange pick from this group is Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong. Thank the Kansas City Star for that one.
The picks:
25 percent Malcom Brown
15 percent Andrus Peat
15 percent D.J. Humphries
10 percent La’el Collins
10 percent Melvin Gordon
5 percent Eddie Goldman
5 percent Jaelen Strong
5 percent Jake Fisher
5 percent Jalen Collins
5 percent T.J. Clemmings
24. Arizona Cardinals: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Following the news that Gurley’s knee checked out fine during combine medical re-checks this past weekend, he’d probably land higher in this mock draft. For now, he’s the top choice for Arizona, and with good reason. He could step right into the team’s starting lineup, pushing Andre Ellington into a third-down role.
The picks:
20 percent Todd Gurley
15 percent Alvin Dupree
10 percent Cameron Erving
10 percent Eric Kendricks
10 percent Jalen Collins
10 percent Melvin Gordon
5 percent Eli Harold
5 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Preston Smith
5 percent Shane Ray
25. Carolina Panthers: D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
With Peat gone, this choice came down to Humphries and Ereck Flowers of Miami. Both are talented players, and would be good, necessary picks for the Panthers. But looking beyond offensive tackle, we see safety Landon Collins, running back Melvin Gordon and defensive end Preston Smith. When most are considering a lineman for Carolina, those positions should also be something to consider.
The picks:
20 percent Andrus Peat
20 percent D.J. Humphries
20 percent Ereck Flowers
15 percent T.J. Clemmings
10 percent Landon Collins
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Melvin Gordon
5 percent Preston Smith
26. Baltimore Ravens: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
With the players left, the choices were between Strong and cornerback Marcus Peters. Since the top pick was a wide receiver in Breshad Perriman, I went that direction.
The picks:
30 percent Breshad Perriman
15 percent Jaelen Strong
15 percent Melvin Gordon
15 percent Marcus Peters
5 percent Arik Armstead
5 percent Kevin Johnson
5 percent Maxx Williams
5 percent Nelson Agholor
5 percent Todd Gurley
27. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Apparently the need the opinion that Dallas needs a cornerback is popular. I went with Gurley in my last mock draft, so it was a little strange being the only person to make that pick. In Collins, another stab would be made at a high-upside LSU cornerback. Maybe he could succeed where Morris Claiborne has struggled.
The picks:
20 percent Jalen Collins
20 percent Kevin Johnson
15 percent Marcus Peters
10 percent Eddie Goldman
10 percent Melvin Gordon
5 percent Arik Armstead
5 percent Byron Jones
5 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent Quinten Rollins
5 percent Todd Gurley
28. Denver Broncos: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
That seems like an oddly high number on Clemmings, especially this late in the first round. The athletic but somewhat raw Clemmings would be Denver’s right tackle of the future and give them a building block up front.
The picks:
40 percent T.J. Clemmings
10 percent Cameron Erving
10 percent D.J. Humphries
5 percent Andrus Peat
5 percent Arik Armstead
5 percent Ereck Flowers
5 percent Eric Kendricks
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Maxx Williams
5 percent Owamagbe Odighizuwa
5 percent Stephone Anthony
29. Indianapolis Colts: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
With a three-way tie and two of the choices being gone, Goldman is the default selection for the Colts. He can play over the nose for the Colts and fill a spot where they’ve struggled to find consistency since changing to a 3-4 defense.
The picks:
20 percent Cameron Erving
20 percent Landon Collins
20 percent Eddie Goldman
10 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent Arik Armstead
5 percent D.J. Humphries
5 percent Eli Harold
5 percent Ereck Flowers
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent T.J. Clemmings
30. Green Bay Packers: Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
The only other team with 15 percent of picks being the top choice is Kansas City. For Green Bay this shouldn’t be a surprise considering how close to vest general manager Ted Thompson keeps things. With a tie between Kendricks and Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones, I opted for the more pro-ready UCLA linebacker.
The picks:
15 percent Byron Jones
15 percent Erick Kendricks
15 percent Jalen Collins
10 percent Marcus Peters
10 percent Shaq Thompson
5 percent Eli Harold
5 percent Eric Rowe
5 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent Kevin Johnson
5 percent Owamagbe Odighizuwa
5 percent Randy Gregory
5 percent Stephone Anthony
31. New Orleans Saints (via Seattle): Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Now that we’re down to the final choices of the first round, our mock drafters have basically lost their consensus. There are 15 different players mocked to New Orleans here, with Dorsett being the choice on three mocks. For Dorsett it would cap off a sensational offseason process that saw him start as a middle-round choice.
The picks:
15 percent Phillip Dorsett
10 percent Eric Rowe
10 percent Kevin Johnson
10 percent Maxx Williams
5 percent Breshad Perriman
5 percent Byron Jones
5 percent Denzel Perryman
5 percent Devin Funchess
5 percent Dorial Green-Beckham
5 percent Eddie Goldman
5 percent Eli Harold
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Nelson Agholor
5 percent Owamagbe Odighizuwa
5 percent Paul Dawson
32. New England Patriots: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Like New Orleans at pick No. 31, there are 15 different picks for Patriots here. Considering their top choice, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, is gone, it would be hard to rationalize Peters being the consensus choice. It does make some sense, though. Bill Belichick would be getting an incredibly talented but troubled player who could slip in the draft.
The picks:
25 percent Eddie Goldman
10 percent Marcus Peters
5 percent Byron Jones
5 percent Cameron Erving
5 percent Carl Davis
5 percent Devin Funchess
5 percent Eric Rowe
5 percent Grady Jarrett
5 percent Jordan Phillips
5 percent La’el Collins
5 percent Malcom Brown
5 percent Mario Edwards
5 percent Melvin Gordon
5 percent Preston Smith
5 percent Sammie Coates
Mock drafts used:
Nick Klopsis, New York Newsday
Pete Prisco, and his jorts, CBS Sports
Dan Kadar, and his jorts as well, SB Nation
Terez Paylor, Kansas City Star
Chris Burke, Sports Illustrated
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