Saturday, 7 March 2015

The 2015 conference championship cheat sheet: Favorites, contenders, and bid thieves


It's back.


Admittedly, this year's edition of the conference tournament cheat sheet is coming along a little late — we're midway through the first week of college basketball's fortnight of conference tournaments (and the Ivy League's final weekend of play) that decide dozens of automatic NCAA Tournament berths.


By the end of this Saturday, we'll know two NCAA Tournament teams, and those numbers will only grow from there. So without further ado, let's dive into the magical world of the madness before The Madness.


Concluding


Ivy League


What, when, and where: The Ivy League's automatic NCAA Tournament bid, the only one awarded to a regular season champion, will be either earned or put up for grabs in a one-game playoff this Saturday. Yale can take it outright with a victory over Dartmouth, while a Yale loss would allow Harvard to force a playoff with a win over Brown.


Contenders: Harvard and Yale. No other team can win the Ivy this season.


Favorite: Yale. The Crimson have the better rep, but the Bulldogs are the highest-ranked Ivy in KenPom, and strangulated the two-time defending league champions in a 62-52 win on Friday night in Cambridge. Beating Dartmouth, a team Yale thumped by 15 in New Haven, is a low bar for the Elis.


Bid thieves: None. The Ivy does, to its credit, usually send its best team dancing.


Bubble trouble? None. Both Harvard (by virtue of a brutal loss to Virginia, and a loss to Holy Cross) and Yale (a brutal loss to Florida and losses to Quinnipiac and NJIT) failed to do the work necessary to build legitimate NCAA Tournament C.V.s before conference play began.


Ohio Valley


What, when, and where: The Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) Tournament has been running since Wednesday in Nashville, with No. 1 seed Murray State coming back against Morehead State on Friday to make Saturday's final and No. 3 seed Belmont winning twice — once by scoring 97 points, once by scoring 53 — to earn the right to meet the Racers. The final tips at 7 p.m. this Saturday in Nashville.


Contenders: Murray State, Eastern Kentucky, and Belmont were the three predictable threats, and the Racers have both the conference's best player (NBA-ready dynamo Cameron Payne) and the league's best per-possession offense and defense.


Favorite: Murray State. Re-read that last paragraph, and also factor in that Murray State hasn't lost an Ohio Valley game this year — or a basketball game since November. The Racers hold the nation's longest non-Kentucky win streak.


Bid thieves: Belmont could steal one from Murray State, I suppose.


Bubble trouble? Minimal. Despite its gaudy record, Murray State would have long odds to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large participant. In starting the season 2-4, the Racers lost to Xavier by 27 and Valparaiso by 35, and their best win all year came against Illinois State — which won't make the NCAA Tournament without upsetting both Wichita State and Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley tournament, it would seem. It's do-or-don't-dance for both teams on Saturday night.


Continuing


Big South


What, when, and where: The Big South Tournament has been running since Wednesday in Conway, South Carolina, home of Coastal Carolina. No. 1 seed High Point was ousted Friday, leaving semifinals pitting Coastal Carolina against Gardner-Webb and Winthrop against Longwood.


Contenders: All of those teams except Longwood would be understandable champions, but Coastal Carolina is the league's best team remaining, per KenPom.


Favorite: It was High Point, but now it has to be the Chanticleers. Home court is a major asset, especially when it magnifies a pretty good team.


Bid thieves: None. High Point isn't getting stolen from, either: The Panthers were the league's best team, but not by an overwhelming margin.


Bubble trouble? None. No team here could have been an at-large participant.


Colonial


What, when, and where: The Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) Tournament began Friday in Baltimore, and continues Saturday with four quarterfinal games. It will conclude on Monday.


Contenders: Any of the top five seeds — William & Mary, UNC Wilmington, Northeastern, James Madison, and Hofstra — would be an unsurprising champion.


Favorite: William & Mary. The Tribe, looking for their first NCAA Tournament appearance ever, went 7-1 against those other four top-five seeds in the regular season, though they also got swept by Delaware and lost to quarterfinal opponent Elon.


Bid thieves: None.


Bubble trouble? None. William & Mary is probably the conference's most ambitious and accomplished team in non-conference play, at least in terms of strength of schedule ... and its best win was over Wofford. Northeastern and James Madison both beat Colonial defector Richmond, which is cool, I guess. No at-larges are coming from the CAA this year.


Horizon League


What, when, and where: The Horizon League Tournament has been running since Tuesday, and its bizarre structure has brought teams to Valparaiso for Friday's quarterfinal action and Saturday's semifinal — but the champion may or may not be crowned on Tuesday on the Crusaders' floor, depending on whether they make it to the final. The Horizon final could be played at Green Bay or Cleveland State, depending on Saturday's results.


Contenders: Valparaiso and Green Bay. The Phoenix were one of the mid-major darlings left out of the 2014 NCAA Tournament, and returned scorer extraordinaire Keifer Sykes from that squad, so many thought they would be the league's best team again — except Valpo won the regular season title and was almost as good on a per-possession basis this season. The two teams exchanged road victories in their season series.


Favorite: Green Bay. When in doubt in college basketball, I'll lean to the team with the best player, and Sykes, who has NBA aspirations, is slightly better in my book than Valpo's fantastic Alec Peters, a dead-eyed combo forward.


Bid thieves: None.


Bubble trouble? Minimal. Valpo's best win all year? Murray State. Green Bay's? Miami. So, uh, yeah.


Metro Atlantic


What, when, and where: The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Tournament has been running since Thursday, and will run through Monday, in Albany.


Contenders: Iona and Rider. The Gaels are fun as hell and have one of the nation's best offenses; the Broncs have the league's best defense, which has allowed a pretty stingy 0.94 points per possession in conference play.


Favorite: Iona. 2-0 against Rider and 2-0 against No. 3 seed Manhattan, so that's a good sign, but the Gaels have struggled with No. 4 seed Monmouth and No. 5 seed Canisius, so look out on Sunday if Iona gets past Siena, as it should.


Bid thieves: Iona is fun enough to deserve the New York Times writeup it (and coach Tim Cluess) recently got, but not good enough to be in line for a dance ticket.


Bubble trouble? Minimal. Iona's best win is over Wake Forest. Wake Forest is currently 5-12 in the ACC.


Missouri Valley


What, when, and where: The Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) Tournament, affectionately branded as "Arch Madness," has been running since Thursday in St. Louis, and will conclude on Sunday.


Contenders: Wichita State and Northern Iowa. Both teams will make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in St. Louis, and they're also head-and-shoulders above the rest of the conference.


Favorite: Wichita State. The Shockers and Panthers have traded blowout wins at home in their season series, but the Shockers were more dominant in conference play than they were while going undefeated last year, and will have slightly more rest entering Sunday's final if the two teams meet.


Bid thieves: No one is "stealing" anything from Wichita State and Northern Iowa, and they're not stealing anything from anyone.


Bubble trouble? Significant, in theory. Illinois State or Loyola of Chicago winning the Missouri Valley's automatic bid will shrink the at-large pool by one spot.


Northeast


What, when, and where: The Northeast Conference (NEC) Tournament began on Wednesday at campus sites, and now continues at them on Saturday before concluding at the higher seed on Tuesday.


Contenders: St. Francis (New York) and Robert Morris. They're the two best teams left, and they're playing at home. It's easy.


Favorite: St. Francis (New York). The Terriers started 2014-15 0-5 and have gone 22-5 since, running off a 15-3 record in conference play.


Bid thieves: Nope.


Bubble trouble? Nada.


Southern


What, when, and where: The Southern Conference (SoCon) Tournament began on Friday and will continue through Monday in Greensboro, North Carolina.


Contenders: Wofford, Chattanooga, and Mercer. The class of the SoCon.


Favorite: Wofford. The Terriers are good enough for an NCAA Tournament upset, and lost twice in conference play.


Bid thieves: Arguably, any team that isn't Wofford would be purloining a ticket.


Bubble trouble? None.


West Coast


What, when, and where: The West Coach Conference (WCC) Tournament began on Friday in Las Vegas and will continue through Tuesday.


Contenders: Gonzaga and BYU. The Zags are Final Four-caliber, but BYU is streaking, just beat Gonzaga, and needs wins more desperately.


Favorite: Gonzaga. Being good is better than being hot.


Bid thieves: Saint Mary's could steal a bid by winning the WCC Tournament, but there's very little chance the Gaels go dancing without that.


Bubble trouble? Saint Mary's or any other team that isn't Gonzaga or BYU winning out in Vegas would mean another bubble team's fortunes will turn up snake eyes.


In Progress


America East


What, when, and where: The America East Conference Tournament began on Wednesday, resumes Sunday, and finishes next Saturday on the floor of the highest seed remaining.


Contenders: Albany, Vermont and Stony Brook. The Great Danes are tournament-tested, having won the America East last year (and scared Florida for 30 minutes in the NCAA Tournament), the Catamounts are the league's best team per KenPom, and Stony Brook has the league's player of the year in Jameel Warney.


Favorite: Albany. Home court trumps the better player and the better team, as Vermont learned last year when it had both and still lost at Albany.


Bid thieves: None to speak of.


Bubble trouble? None to speak of.


Atlantic Sun


What, when, and where: The Atlantic Sun Conference (A-Sun) Tournament began on Tuesday, continued Thursday, and concludes Sunday, as USC Upstate travels to North Florida.


Contenders: North Florida and USC Upstate, neither of which has been to an NCAA Tournament.


Favorite: North Florida. The Ospreys and Florida Gulf Coast could've met in a seismic Sunshine State showdown between the league's best offense and defense, respectively, but Upstate beat the Eagles in Dunk City, setting up a final that looks more lopsided in the Ospreys' favor.


Bid thieves: Not here.


Bubble trouble? Ain't happening.


Patriot League


What, when, and where: The Patriot League Tournament began on Tuesday, continued Thursday, will resume Sunday, and ends on Wednesday, March 11. Believe it or not, it's played entirely at campus sites


Contenders: Bucknell and Colgate, the only two Patriot League teams in the KenPom top 200.


Favorite: Bucknell. The Bison have the No. 1 seed and the home-court advantage that comes with it.


Bid thieves: No.


Bubble trouble? Nyet.


Commencing


The Summit League


What, when, and where: Yes, it's really called The Summit League; the The Summit League Tournament begins on Saturday and runs through Tuesday, in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.


Contenders: South Dakota State is the league's only team in the KenPom top 150, and had the conference's best offense and defense in conference play. It's also lost just twice since Jan. 4. Calling North Dakota State and Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne contenders when both took games from the Jackrabbits at home and got mashed out in Brookings feels charitable.


Favorite: South Dakota State. See above.


Bid thieves: Not at the summit of The Summit.


Bubble trouble? Not happening.


Yet to Begin


American


Atlantic 10


ACC


Big 12


Big East


Big Sky


Big Ten


Big West


Conference USA


MAC


MEAC


Mountain West


Pac-12


SEC


Southland


SWAC


Sun Belt


WAC






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