Every fantasy game provider tells you how likely it thinks you are to win your matchup. Look at those numbers. And then ignore them.
I like to look at the projected point totals for each of my teams, each of my players, every week. Ultimately, those numbers aren't worth much, but they give at least a framework, and they're fun to keep an eye on, because once you've set your lineup, what the heck else are you going to do?
Monday morning, I looked at the Yahoo! matchup page for one of my matchups. I was ahead 165.25-143.80 heading into Monday night. My opponent had no players left. I had DeMarco Murray. Good times for me. And then I looked at the line that indicated percent chance to win.
Ninety-nine.
I was 99 percent to win a matchup that I led by 21.45 when my opponent had no players left. Basically, Yahoo decided there was a 1-percent chance that DeMarco Murray would lose 11 fumbles Monday night without gaining any yards.
Like I said, the percentages and the projections are basically meaningless, and ultimately I won by ... well, a lot. I just think that's the silliest damn thing I've ever seen, and I wanted to share it.
I spent Sunday's early games projected to win one of my matchups by a dozen or so points. And then Andrew Luck, Jeremy Maclin, Eddie Lacy and Ahmad Bradshaw played the late-afternoon games, and I lost by 50. Projections are ultimately nonsense.
This is The Ticker for Week 9, a stock market-inspired look at the fantasy football waiver wire. As always, there are six categories:
Stocks I'm buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I'm not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don't believe it
Stocks I'm selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I'm bailing on them a bit
Stocks I'm not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Every week, look at your projections. Look at your percent chance to win. Smile and nod at the numbers. And then ignore them, because everything will change as soon as the games kick off.
Stocks I'm buying
Martavis Bryant, WR, PIT (7 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
I have a spreadsheet on my computer where I keep track of all the players I use in the Ticker, by team, position and week. Some teams have lots of entries — counting this week, I'm at seven Buccaneers — but the Steelers had a big fat zero so far this season. Pittsburgh has been the least-complicated team in fantasy all year. You start Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown every week. Maybe you use Ben Roethlisberger in the right situation. But LeGarrette Blount, Markus Wheaton and Heath Miller just never have the upside to really be fantasy contributors. But now Bryant, who hadn't seen any action until Week 7, has 123 yards and three scores the last two weeks. He's outside starting territory, but he's moving into at least "stash and monitor."
Donte Moncrief, WR, IND (2 percent)
I'm claiming this one. I was high on Moncrief for Week 8 even before we knew Reggie Wayne would miss Sunday. Once that news came out, Moncrief became a definite FanDuel investment for me, and it paid off to the tune of seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. Wayne's return (maybe Week 9, maybe later) will hurt Moncrief a bit, but the rookie has already surpassed Hakeem Nicks in the Indianapolis offense, and with Wayne being a bit underwhelming so far on the season, Moncrief could keep climbing.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins , TE, TAM (2 percent)
Over less than three minutes of game time Sunday, the rookie Seferian-Jenkins went from (presumably) one of the happiest moments of his life to ... much less so. Seferian-Jenkins' first career touchdown came with 2:02 left in the game Sunday, giving Tampa Bay a 13-10 lead and a line on a victory. His next touch came in overtime, when the rookie fumbled the ball, which was picked up by Minnesota and returned for a Tampa Bay loss. Seferian-Jenkins has seen his snap count and usage rise. He's not a starting tight end in fantasy yet, but as bad as the position is, he's moving that way.
Stocks I'm not buying
Jonathan Stewart , RB, CAR (36 percent)
It's not just that DeAngelo Williams is expected back from injury soon. It's not just that Stewart is often injured. It's not just that he has one touchdown in the last two seasons. It's not just that his 94 total yards Sunday marked his highest total since Week 15 of 2011. It's ... well, it's all those things.
Jonas Gray , RB, NE (6 percent)
In two games since Stevan Ridley hit injured reserve, Gray has gone from "practice squad" to "Shane Vereen's change-of-pace" to "New England's leading rusher." But this is the Patriots. Brandon Bolden randomly led the team in rushing yards in a game or two a couple years ago. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead would pop, then fade, then pop again. Even Vereen has seen his usage yo-yo unpredictably game to game. I think Gray should be picked up in all leagues, and I'll be ranking him reasonably well this week, but I fully expect Bolden or Vereen or James White to lead the way a time or two over the next few weeks, and we'll never see it coming.
Juwan Thompson , RB, DEN (2 percent)
Sure, this is obvious, inasmuch as Thompson's two touchdowns Thursday night came on vulture scores after Ronnie Hillman did the work to get the Broncos to the goal line. But that sort of thing can continue -- recall John Kuhn or Michael Bush. Heck, Mike Tolbert has made a career of it. No, the reason I'm not even buying that meager value for Thompson is that Montee Ball will be back before too awfully long. The once-revered Ball won't be getting his lead job back -- barring a complete Hillman fall-apart or some really weird choices by the coaching staff -- but I can't imagine he falls below No. 2 in the pecking order.
Stocks I'm selling
Julio Jones , WR, ATL (100 percent)
Someone will glance through this column and think I'm advocating dumping Julio Jones, or at least benching him. I'm not. Don't be that reader. I still think Jones is an every-week must-start, and he'll have some big games. But I've long advocated making sure you have a superstar receiver so you don't have that starting spot to think about, and that is where I think Jones is now lagging. He's still a fantasy starter. But, with that offensive line, with that lack of production, he's no longer that guy that lets you say "OK, I've got that nailed down." He's just a good player, not a difference-maker.
Ben Tate, RB, CLE (92 percent)
I'm late to the party on this as The Ticker is concerned. But I've been somewhat anti-Tate the last couple weeks, in the weekly start/sits, in my FanDuel pieces, etc. Tate is just as good as he was a few weeks ago, when he was producing at a great rate. The thing that has changed is his offensive line. The Browns had one of the league's best centers, Alex Mack, on the line a few weeks ago, but he hit IR two weeks ago. Now, Cleveland's center is ... well, it doesn't matter. It's not Alex Mack, and that kind of loss to an offensive line can kill a running game. Tate goes from a high-end RB2 to an iffy flex play at best.
Stocks I'm not selling
Julius Thomas , TE, DEN (100 percent)
OK, so Thomas isn't going to score 29 touchdowns this year, which was his pace as of a couple weeks ago. But that was always unsustainable. Also unlikely to sustain is Thomas' pace the last two weeks, which is 25 yards and no scores per game. As always, reality lies somewhere in the middle. But this time, that middle is closer to the high end. Thomas will get back on the touchdown ledger soon, and no, "nine scores in five games" isn't real, but a touchdown per game, more or less? That's fine, that's believable, and that's an elite tight end.
Eric Decker , WR, NYJ (82 percent)
We're still waiting for the first game of 75-plus yards for Decker as a Jet, and he has only three touchdowns on the season. But even with the worst quarterbacking some of us will ever see, Decker's 16-game pace (pretending he didn't miss a game outright) is for almost 900 yards. Give him a quarterback that even comes close to competent — and I can't actually say he'll get that, but it's possible — and Decker is an every-week must-start.
Hedges
Charles Sims , RB, TAM (6 percent)
This should be obvious, but he's still got a single-digit ownership percentage, so apparently it isn't. Doug Martin is terrible. Bobby Rainey is probably better, but woo-freaking-hoo about that, he's still not great. Mike James isn't special either. Sims, a third-round pick in this year's draft, might be special. We have no NFL track record to gauge on, but the Buccaneers like him, and he'd have been involved by now if not for an ankle injury. He could be back this week, but at the least, he's someone who needs to be stashed in all leagues.
Michael Vick , QB, NYJ (2 percent)
At the very, absolute least, Vick has to be better than Geno Smith, yeah? He's a better runner and a better thrower, and that's ... pretty much the job. We'll still see turnovers — he fumbled four times in less than a full game Sunday, losing two — but he'll get a fair number of rushing yards every week he's the starter, and rushing yards out of a quarterback will always keep the quarterback in value. Consider him a low-end QB2, but with upside.
Future market
Kyle Rudolph , TE, MIN (30 percent)
The tight-end position has been something of a wasteland this season. Either you have Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski or Greg Olsen, or you've spent much of the year annoyed, and even that is discounting the frustration of owning Graham the last few weeks. Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates and Dwayne Allen have been fine, while the Larry Donnell-Zach Ertz-Travis Kelce-Jordan Reed-Delanie Walker-Jason Witten have been largely *whatever.* I was the lowest on Rudolph to start the season, but with so much "eh" at the position, and Rudolph eying a return in the next few weeks, fantasy owners desperate for tight-end production might want to look at Rudolph just for a new face.
Paul Richardson, WR, SEA (1 percent)
Doug Baldwin is going to continue to be the top receiver in the Seattle offense. But Russell Wilson isn't going to run the ball as much as he has, and with the team's tight ends awful, and Marshawn Lynch's value flagging, the Seahawks need another option on offense. Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette aren't special, but Richardson — the team's second-round draft pick this year — could be. He's crazy fast, though he hasn't had the chance to do a lot yet. Still, the team needs another option, and Richardson could be it.
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